Notre Dame looks to strengthen its College Football Playoff case as the fifth-ranked Fighting Irish face the Navy Midshipmen in an early Saturday kickoff for Week 9. The Irish (6-1) are coming off a bye week after an upset loss at BYU in Week 7. Navy (2-5, 1-4 American Athletic Conference) has lost consecutive games to North Texas and UTSA.
Kickoff is set for noon ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, home of the NFL's New England Patriots. Notre Dame enters as a 30.5-point favorite, the largest spread of the week, with an over/under of 56.5 points. Both teams have seen the over hit in five of seven games this season.
Model Projections
The SportsLine Projection Model, after simulating the matchup 10,000 times, projects the under 56.5 points as the value side, hitting in 67% of simulations. Notre Dame's defense is a key factor: the Irish rank tied for fourth nationally in scoring defense (13.4 points per game allowed) and third in rushing defense (67 yards per game allowed). Navy's offense relies heavily on the run, averaging 308 rushing yards per game (third nationally), but ranks seventh in the American Conference in scoring offense (29.7 points per game).
The model also indicates one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations, though that specific pick is available only via SportsLine. The model entered Week 9 on a 68-59 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $400 for $100 players.
