The NFL survivor pool has thinned significantly after another week where several favorites failed to cover, including the San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, and Houston Texans, who entered as 10.5-point favorites over the New York Giants. With four teams on bye, Week 8 features only 14 games, but Survivor Revival pools offer a second chance for eliminated players.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NFL game 10,000 times, has entered Week 8 of the 2026 season on a 58-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024, returning over $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites. The model has identified several heavy favorites for survivor consideration: Cincinnati Bengals (-11.5) vs. Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars (-10) vs. Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots (-7) vs. Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals, and Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers. The Rams are the designated home team in the all-Los Angeles matchup, while the Chargers aim to snap a nine-game losing streak dating to last season.
However, the model expresses low confidence in the 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs, who are 1.5-point and -125 money-line favorites against the 5-2 Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. Despite a 31-10 win over Denver in the season opener on Sept. 14, the Chiefs are coming off a 20-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. The model gives Kansas City a 47% win probability, making them a risky survivor pick. Patrick Mahomes has completed 64.9% of his passes for 1,474 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions in six starts, while running back Kenneth Walker III leads the ground game with 701 yards and six touchdowns on 120 carries, though he was limited to 36 yards on 14 carries against Seattle.
Denver, the defending AFC West champions, ride a three-game winning streak behind quarterback Bo Nix, who has completed 59.2% of his passes for 1,271 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. The model projects the game as a near 50/50 split, suggesting better survivor options exist among other favorites.
Instead, the model is confidently backing a team that has been overlooked in many survivor pools, giving it a win probability exceeding 70% in simulations. The identity of that team is available exclusively through SportsLine.
