Week 9 of the 2026 college football season continues on Friday, Oct. 30, with a Big 12 matchup between the Baylor Bears and the UCF Knights. The game comes after Baylor fired head coach Dave Aranda following a 25-24 loss to Kansas in which the Bears surrendered an 11-point lead in the final quarter. UCF enters on a high after upsetting then-No. 2 BYU 39-31 in double overtime.
Baylor's offense has struggled with inconsistency at quarterback, where DJ Lagway and Nate Bennett have not produced consistently. Receiver Gavin Freeman provides a threat, but the unit lacks overall potency. The Bears' defense, however, ranks in the top 20 nationally in points allowed per game. Baylor averages 29.1 points per game but has managed only 30 points total over its last two outings. The Bears' lone road win this season was a 55-19 victory over Arizona State.
UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins threw for 293 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions against BYU. Running back Duke Watson added 94 yards on 6.3 yards per carry. The Knights have not lost at home this season, with wins over BYU and TCU by one possession, a 44-30 victory over Georgia State, and a 73-6 season-opening win over Bethune-Cookman. UCF averages 32.7 points per game, though the team scored 45 points across two road losses before the 39-point outburst against BYU.
Odds and Predictions
Polymarket lists the following probabilities: Baylor to win at 49%, UCF to win at 52%, UCF to win by more than 1.5 points at 49%, and the combined total to exceed 48.5 points at 48% (under 48.5 at 53%). The SportsLine Projection Model gives Baylor a 43% win probability and UCF a 57% win probability. The model projects UCF to win by more than 1.5 points in 54% of simulations and the teams to combine for more than 48.5 points in 65.2% of simulations.
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