With the 2026 MLB offseason approaching amid a looming lockout, analysts predict a free-agency frenzy for the top pitching talent available. The Milwaukee Brewers' recent success underscored the value of elite starting pitching, and a market headlined by Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta is expected to trigger significant spending across the league. Here are the projected landing spots for the ten best pitchers on the market this winter.
Tarik Skubal to St. Louis Cardinals
While the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers are viewed as co-favorites for the two-time AL Cy Young Award winner, the prediction favors a surprise move to St. Louis. With a roster full of young, cost-controlled talent, Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom has the flexibility to spend on a true ace. Adding Skubal would solve the team's biggest rotation need and allow their young arms to develop gradually, signaling a renewed willingness to invest.
Freddy Peralta to Remain with Tampa Bay Rays
Bucking conventional wisdom, the forecast has Peralta staying in Tampa Bay. The Rays are anticipated to face a new salary floor in MLB and have added incentive from an eventual new stadium. Peralta thrived with the organization previously, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in the regular season, and has credited the club for reviving his career.
Trevor Rogers to Washington Nationals
The Nationals' lineup produced the third-most runs in baseball (821) last season, yet the team finished 77-85 largely due to a rotation that recorded the fourth-fewest quality starts (36). Rogers, hitting free agency at age 29 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over his last 48 starts, would slot in as the No. 2 starter behind Cade Cavalli, pushing Connelly Early to a more suitable No. 3 role.
Michael King to Chicago White Sox
Chicago's rotation finished 28th in quality starts (34) and 19th in WHIP (1.31), a profile not built for sustained success. With financial flexibility this offseason, the White Sox are predicted to make the highest offer for the 31-year-old King, installing him as the rotation's centerpiece alongside Sean Burke, Davis Martin, and Hagen Smith.
Sonny Gray to Atlanta Braves
Gray, likely in the final season or two of his career, spent considerable time last season flying home to Nashville. The short flight from Atlanta and the Braves' preference for a short-term deal with a higher annual value make this a high-confidence prediction.
Kevin Gausman to New York Mets
Despite high hopes for prospects Nolan McLean and Christian Scott in 2027, the Mets are expected to act. Gausman, turning 36 in January, fits as a No. 2 starter on a two- or three-year deal, aligning his contract expiration with that of Bo Bichette in 2029.
Kaima Taira to Toronto Blue Jays
The 26-year-old Japanese starter posted a 1.36 ERA for the Seibu Lions and was posted for bidding. While the New York Yankees will show interest, Toronto is projected to win the bidding war, slotting Taira in as the No. 3 starter behind Dylan Cease and José Soriano.
Foster Griffin to San Francisco Giants
Skepticism about the Giants' willingness to spend on top-tier names points them toward cost-effective options. Griffin, 31, earned his first All-Star selection last season with a 3.60 ERA in 31 starts split between the Nationals and Guardians. His late-career breakout and age should suppress his market value, making him an ideal fit.
Adrian Morejon to Chicago Cubs
Inspired by the Brewers' bullpen dominance, the Cubs are predicted to splurge on the left-handed reliever. Morejon posted a 2.58 ERA with a 248-66 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 223.1 innings from 2024-26, ranking among the game's best lefty relievers. The move would leave Chicago with resources to pursue a front-line starter via trade.
Clay Holmes to Baltimore Orioles
With Trevor Rogers potentially departing, Baltimore seeks rotation stability. Holmes, a two-time All-Star entering his age-34 season, excelled in nine starts for the Mets (2.39 ERA) and owns a 3.44 ERA over 267 innings the past two years. A two-year deal with a 2029 option would slot him in as the No. 3 starter.
