The 2026-27 NBA season is just a week old, but several players have already emerged as critical swing pieces in the championship race. While superstars like Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are givens, the development, health, or fit of a second tier of players could turn contenders into champions. Here are the five biggest X-Factors identified early in the campaign.
Ajay Mitchell, Oklahoma City Thunder
With Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace sidelined, Mitchell has seen his offensive volume soar and is now functioning as the Thunder's No. 2 option behind Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City gave 11 players at least 900 minutes last season, but five of those players are gone or unlikely to return. The team's offense stalled against San Antonio in the playoffs when Mitchell and Williams were both hurt, relying heavily on contested mid-range shots. Mitchell's mid-range scoring is established, but his finishing and pull-up shooting must improve to create advantages against elite rim protectors like Wembanyama. He flashed future stardom in the first two rounds of last year's playoff run, and his growth will determine whether the Thunder can avenge their loss to the Spurs.
Ivica Zubac, Indiana Pacers
Zubac grabbed 15 rebounds on opening night — the first time a Pacers center had done so since Myles Turner in November 2021. Indiana traded its five-out spacing identity for Zubac's sturdier defense, rebounding, screening, passing, and interior scoring. Early returns are positive despite Zubac and Tyrese Haliburton sharing only 52 minutes together so far. Haliburton's gravity and Pascal Siakam's versatility balance the floor enough for Zubac to operate from the dunker's spot, and his passing against 4-on-3 situations should generate good looks. If the Pacers integrate Zubac's skill set without his lack of 3-point shooting hindering their offense, they could be even more diverse than during their 2025 Eastern Conference title run.
LaMelo Ball, Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota acquired Ball to complement Anthony Edwards, hoping his playmaking would flourish without the burden of being the sole franchise cornerstone he was in Charlotte. The early Edwards injury has forced Ball into a lead role sooner than expected. In his first solo star outing, Ball finished with 8 points and 6 turnovers, highlighting the fine line between his creative brilliance and the "unserious basketball" the Hornets sought to avoid. The Timberwolves are deeper than Ball's Charlotte teams, but they lack complementary creators like Kon Knueppel or Brandon Miller. With Oklahoma City's injuries creating vulnerability atop the West, Minnesota must win regular-season games without Edwards while preserving the identity Edwards will return to.
Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets
Sengun has emerged as one of the few big men who can offensively challenge Wembanyama. He shot 17-of-23 with Wembanyama as primary defender last season and recently posted 29 points and 7 assists against him. Sengun's strength advantage forces Wembanyama to step away from the rim to contest his high-arcing floater, opening passing lanes. He has also resumed taking 3-pointers — 3.4 per game in his first 11 appearances last year before abandoning the shot — which could further stretch San Antonio's defense. With the Thunder hobbled, Houston may be the Western Conference team best equipped to unseat the Spurs and reach the Finals if Sengun continues to answer the "Wembanyama question."
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
Embiid's fit alongside a transition-oriented roster featuring LeBron James, Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Maxey, and VJ Edgecombe remains a work in progress. Philadelphia ranks 27th in transition frequency and 21st in transition efficiency, and Embiid's deliberate style contrasts with teammates who want to run. He has reduced his average time of possession by nearly a full second and is in better shape, but his 3-point shooting has declined for several seasons. The 76ers' theory relies on overwhelming talent generating mismatches, but optimizing the blend of Embiid's half-court dominance with the team's speed will define their regular season. His supermax contract makes a trade unlikely, so Philadelphia must find synergies between very different player profiles to contend in May.
