The Indianapolis Colts have launched a full-scale rebuild, firing general manager Chris Ballard and trading eight-time Pro Bowl guard Quenton Nelson to Seattle and three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to San Francisco for three future draft picks, none earlier than the third round. At 2-5, the team appears ready to concede the season, but a critical complication looms: Indianapolis traded its 2026 and 2027 first-round picks, along with wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, to the New York Jets last November for cornerback Sauce Gardner. As a result, the Colts will not have a first-round selection in either of the next two drafts, meaning the worse they perform, the more valuable the Jets' picks become.
This situation is unusual among recent NFL rebuilds. An analysis of five comparable teardowns — the 2019 Miami Dolphins, 2022 Chicago Bears, 2023 Washington Commanders, 2022 Carolina Panthers, and 2017 Buffalo Bills — shows that every team eventually used a top-seven draft pick on a quarterback. The Dolphins collected multiple first-rounders and selected Tua Tagovailoa fifth overall in 2020. The Bears turned the No. 1 pick in 2023 into a package that eventually yielded Caleb Williams first overall in 2024. Washington drafted Jayden Daniels second overall in 2024 and reached the NFC championship game. Carolina moved up to No. 1 for Bryce Young in 2023. Buffalo, already with a stable coaching and front-office structure, drafted Josh Allen seventh overall in 2018.
Indianapolis now lacks that premium draft capital. Head coach Shane Steichen remains in place, and Daniel Jones is the current starting quarterback. The Colts' previous first-round quarterback, Anthony Richardson (selected fourth overall in 2023), has been benched and last started a game in 2024. As of now, Indianapolis holds eight picks in the 2027 draft, including two third-rounders and two fourth-rounders, but no first-rounder. The team retains its 2028 first-round selection and could acquire more picks by trading assets such as running back Jonathan Taylor, but the path to a franchise quarterback is significantly narrower than for the rebuilds examined.
