Teams rarely perform at the same level for an entire season, and the market often overreacts to early results. A look at the 10 teams with the biggest drop in average cover margin from September to October shows Mississippi State falling from +14.38 to -15.67 (a -30.05 change), Florida from +10.38 to -16.00 (-26.38), Sam Houston from +14.13 to -11.75 (-25.88), UMass from +15.88 to -7.75 (-23.63), Colorado State from +8.38 to -12.67 (-21.05), Virginia from +7.38 to -10.13 (-17.51), Duke from +11.25 to -6.17 (-17.42), Georgia from +10.25 to -6.00 (-16.25), Iowa State from +7.13 to -8.83 (-15.96), and Northern Illinois from -3.25 to -18.83 (-15.58). Mississippi State's decline coincides with an injury to quarterback Kamario Taylor, while Georgia's drop comes despite continued wins.
Games of the Week
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 17 Florida: The pick is Florida +12.5 (-112) at DraftKings. Florida offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner has a strong history against the Georgia defense; as Georgia Tech's OC his offenses went three-and-out only twice in three games against Georgia. Georgia's defense allows 5.0 points per red-zone possession, ranking 130th nationally.
No. 22 Arizona at No. 13 Texas Tech: The pick is Under 54.5 (-108) at DraftKings. Arizona improved 25.67 points per game against the spread from September to October, the largest improvement nationally. However, Arizona scored only 1.7 points per possession in its lone loss at BYU versus 3.13 in its six wins. Texas Tech's defense remains solid at home, and Arizona's defense can handle a one-dimensional Texas Tech offense.
Lock of the Week
Mississippi State at No. 11 Texas: The pick is Mississippi State team total under 14.5 (-125) at DraftKings. With Kamario Taylor out for the season, Mississippi State's offense has plummeted from 3.66 points per possession in the first four games to 1.12 since the Alabama game. The Bulldogs managed only 15 points against Oklahoma last week, with a late touchdown after the game was decided. They now face a Texas defense that needed overtime to escape Mississippi State last season.
Fallen ACC Powers Battle of the Week
Clemson at Florida State: The pick is Florida State -6 (-108) at DraftKings. Clemson's offense has scored only 12 touchdowns all season, including just two passing touchdowns — the fewest in the country. Florida State, coming off a bye, can put points on the board, and coach Mike Norvell has a history of aggressive play-calling in big spots.
This Was Supposed To Be A Big Game of the Week
No. 2 Ohio State at USC: The pick is Under 52.5 (-115) at FanDuel. Ohio State's quarterback situation is uncertain after Julian Sayin's injury; Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair could both see action. Ohio State will likely lean on the run game against a USC defense that struggles against the run. USC's offense has struggled against good defenses (Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington), and Ohio State's defense remains very good despite a modest pass rush.
Upset of the Week
No. 25 Wisconsin at Iowa: The pick is Wisconsin +142 moneyline at DraftKings. Iowa's early 4-0 start included a fluky win over Michigan and victories over winless Northern Illinois, Northern Iowa, and a struggling Iowa State. The Hawkeyes are now rotating quarterbacks and lost leading rusher Kamari Moulton for the season. Wisconsin's defense smothered USC last week and looks like the typical Iowa defense, while Iowa looks less like its usual self.
Betting Record
Last week: Games of the Week 1-1 (season 10-6, +3.02 units), Lock of the Week 1-0 (season 4-4, -0.48 units), Upset of the Week 1-0 (season 2-6, -2.50 units). Overall last week 5-1, season 21-27, -7.11 units.
