Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, a two-time Cy Young Award winner widely regarded as the best pitcher in baseball, is set to hit free agency this winter and is expected to shatter existing records for pitcher contracts in both total value and average annual value (AAV).
Current Record Holders
By total value, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto holds the record with a 12-year, $325 million deal signed before the 2024 season. Gerrit Cole of the New York Yankees follows with a nine-year, $324 million contract. Other notable deals include Stephen Strasburg (9 years, $245 million), Jacob deGrom (5 years, $185 million), Aaron Nola (7 years, $172 million), and Carlos Rodón (6 years, $162 million). For AAV, Shohei Ohtani leads at $70 million annually, but among pure pitchers, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander share the record at $43.33 million per year.
Expert Contract Predictions
CBS Sports analysts offered their projections for Skubal's next contract:
Mike Axisa: Seven years, $325.5 million ($46.5 million AAV). This would break both the AAV record (Scherzer/Verlander $43.3 million) and the total guarantee record (Yamamoto $325 million). Axisa expects opt-out clauses, possibly multiple, as standard in modern deals.
Dayn Perry: Eight years, $350 million. Perry notes Skubal's dominant return from elbow issues in his walk year and anticipates an aggressive pre-lockout market with a thin free-agent class boosting his value.
Matt Snyder: Eight years, $400 million. Snyder believes this would set new records for both guarantee and AAV, though he suspects teams' wariness of long-term pitcher deals due to injury risk may slightly suppress the years.
All three experts agree Skubal will become the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history, with the final figure likely exceeding $325 million in total value and $43.33 million in AAV.
