A proven computer model from SportsLine has released a six-leg longshot parlay for NFL Week 8 that could return over $1.2 million on a $10 wager. The model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, has generated more than $5,000 in profit for $100 players on top-rated picks since its inception and enters Week 8 on a 58-51 run dating back to 2024.
Among the notable individual props, the Indianapolis Colts are 10-point underdogs at Jacksonville. Indianapolis has scored the first touchdown in each of its last 13 games as a road underdog, a trend that pays +441. An Indianapolis field goal as the first score is +402, while a Jaguars field goal is +324. Despite the first-touchdown trend, the Colts are just 3-10 straight-up over that 13-game span, making a parlay leg of Indianapolis scoring first and losing on the money line an option at +250.
Other first-score longshots include a Tennessee Titans touchdown at +429 against Cincinnati (12.5-point underdogs) and a Miami Dolphins touchdown at +333 versus New England (7-point underdogs).
Key Parlay Leg: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
One of the six legs in the parlay backs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 1-6 points over the Atlanta Falcons at +290. The last six meetings between the teams have all been decided by 1-6 points, and the game in Tampa presents a significant road challenge for Atlanta. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has a 15:4 touchdown-to-turnover ratio at home compared to 8:6 on the road. The Buccaneers' offense scored 43 points against Carolina in Baker Mayfield's return, while Atlanta could be without starting cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and C.J. Henderson (both groin). Tampa Bay ranks second in run defense and third in run offense, and Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has averaged just 46.3 rushing yards per game against the Buccaneers, his lowest against any opponent faced multiple times. The model's simulations project a Buccaneers victory by three points.
The full six-leg parlay, which also includes a +2500 touchdown-scorer prop, is available exclusively through SportsLine. Promotional offers from Kalshi and Polymarket are also highlighted for new users.
