The Indianapolis Colts enter Week 8 as 10-point underdogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars, continuing a trend that has seen them score the game's first touchdown in each of their last 13 games as road underdogs under head coach Shane Steichen. The first scoring play being a Colts touchdown carries odds of +441, while a Colts field goal is +402 and a Jaguars field goal is +324.
Other notable first-scoring-play odds include a Tennessee Titans touchdown at +429 versus the Cincinnati Bengals, with Tennessee a 12.5-point underdog, and a Miami Dolphins touchdown at +333 against the New England Patriots with the Dolphins at +7. Despite the Colts' first-touchdown streak, they are just 3-10 straight-up over that 13-game span, making a parlay on Indianapolis scoring first and losing on the money line a +265 proposition.
A computer simulation model that runs 10,000 iterations per game has produced a six-leg longshot parlay for Week 8 projected to pay over $1.2 million on a $10 wager. The model has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception and enters the week on a 58-51 run on top-rated selections dating back to 2024.
One leg of the parlay backs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 1-6 points over the Atlanta Falcons at +290. Each of the last six meetings between the teams has been decided by that margin, and the game in Tampa presents a significant disadvantage for Atlanta. Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has a 15:4 touchdown-to-turnover ratio at home compared to 8:6 on the road. The Buccaneers scored 43 points against the Carolina Panthers last week in Baker Mayfield's return, while Atlanta may be without starting cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and C.J. Henderson due to groin injuries. Tampa Bay ranks second in run defense and third in run offense, and Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has averaged just 46.3 rushing yards against the Buccaneers, his lowest against any opponent he has faced multiple times. The model's simulations project a three-point Buccaneers victory.
The parlay also includes five additional Week 8 selections, among them a touchdown-scorer prop at +2500.
