The NFL survivor pool saw more upsets in Week 8 with losses by Dallas, Minnesota, Kansas City, and the New York Jets. The Cowboys entered as 7.5-point favorites over the Cardinals. With two teams on bye, Week 9 features only 15 games.
Key spreads have shifted: Cardinals vs. Seahawks moved from -12.5 to -8.5 after Sam Darnold was ruled out with a quad injury and Gardner Minshew replaced Jacoby Brissett for Arizona. Other notable favorites include the Texans at -5.5 over the Chargers, who are on a 10-game losing streak, and the 49ers at -9.5 over the Raiders coming off a bye.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024 and is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites since its inception. The model has locked in its Week 9 survivor pool pick.
In the Patriots vs. Packers matchup at Gillette Stadium, the model is not confident in New England despite the Patriots being 3-point favorites. New England (5-3) rallied from a 13-3 halftime deficit to beat Miami 24-19 in Week 8. Green Bay (5-3) is 2-2 on the road, led by quarterback Jordan Love, who has completed 61.5% of passes for 2,246 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions. Top targets Christian Watson (42 receptions, 708 yards, 6 TDs) and Matthew Golden (43 catches, 619 yards, 4 TDs) lead the receiving corps. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has completed 67.1% of passes for 1,983 yards and 15 touchdowns with eight interceptions in eight starts. The model projects New England winning by just one point.
Instead, the model is confidently backing a team that many have not used in survivor pools, with a near 80% win rate in simulations. The pick is available through the model's platform.
