The Toledo Rockets and Sacramento State Hornets meet in a Mid-American Conference matchup Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET at Hornet Stadium in Sacramento, California.
Toledo enters at 6-2 overall and 3-1 in MAC play, tied for third in the conference, after a 45-38 victory over Western Michigan on Oct. 24. The Rockets are 2-1 on the road this season. Sacramento State sits at 2-7 overall and 1-5 in the MAC, 12th in the standings, following a 31-10 win over Kent State on Friday. The Hornets are 2-3 at home in 2026.
Oddsmakers list Toledo as a 25-point favorite with an over/under of 52.5 points. The money line has Toledo at -2857 and Sacramento State at +1550. The SportsLine Projection Model, after 10,000 simulations, leans toward the Under 52.5, noting the Under has hit in two of Toledo's last three games and in six of Sacramento State's last nine. The model projects a combined 52 points, with the Under representing value 53% of the time.
The model forecasts Toledo quarterback John Alan Richter to throw for over 260 yards and two touchdowns; he has accumulated 2,244 yards and 17 touchdowns this season. For Sacramento State, running back Isaiah Ene is projected to rush for more than 50 yards and a touchdown; he has 77 carries for 410 yards (5.3 average) and three touchdowns on the year.
Additionally, the model indicates one side of the spread hits in well over 70% of simulations. The model entered Week 10 on an 80-77 run on top-rated college football picks.
