The Minnesota Vikings, the last unbeaten team in the NFL, enter Week 9 as 3-point home underdogs against the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills. The 6-1 San Francisco 49ers host the Las Vegas Raiders as 10-point favorites. The Arizona Cardinals face the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West matchup where the line has shifted after news that quarterback Sam Darnold will miss the game with a quad injury. Gardner Minshew will start for Arizona after the Cardinals rallied from 14 points down to defeat the Dallas Cowboys 33-30 in overtime in Week 8.
Other notable Week 9 matchups include the Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders (+4.5), Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears (-6) on Sunday Night Football.
A computer model that simulates every NFL game 10,000 times has identified five confident best bets for Week 9. The model has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception and entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. A successful parlay of the model's five picks would pay nearly +3000.
The model's top pick is the Over 39.5 points in the Cardinals vs. Seahawks game, which hits in 78% of simulations. The Over has hit in six of the past 10 Arizona games and three of the last five Seattle matchups. Seattle ranks 11th in scoring at 24.0 points per game; Arizona averages 21.9 points per game (21st). With Darnold out, Drew Lock will start for Seattle and can target receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (64 receptions, 985 yards, 9 touchdowns). Arizona's offense features running back Tyler Allgeier (72 carries, 323 yards, 2 touchdowns) and tight end Trey McBride (66 receptions, 544 yards, 5 touchdowns). Allgeier rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries in the win over Dallas.
The model also identifies four other matchups where the line is significantly off, including multiple spread picks hitting well over 50% of the time.
