Week 9 of the NFL season features a slate heavy on cross-conference matchups that could serve as potential Super Bowl previews. Key games include the Bills at Vikings (+3), Patriots vs. Packers (+3), Broncos at Panthers (+2.5), and the Bengals facing the Falcons in Madrid with Cincinnati favored by 3 points. Several contests carry spreads of at least a touchdown: Chiefs vs. Jets (+9.5), 49ers vs. Raiders (+9.5), and Seahawks vs. Cardinals (+8.5). Quarterback changes add intrigue, with Drew Lock starting for the injured Sam Darnold and Gardner Minshew replacing Jacoby Brissett.
An advanced computer model that simulates every NFL game 10,000 times has generated betting picks for the entire Week 9 schedule. The model has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated picks since its inception and entered the week on a 60-51 run on top-rated selections dating back to 2024.
Among the model's strongest projections, the Commanders (+4.5, total 48.5) are expected to cover at home against the Rams in over 50% of simulations. Washington is 3-1 against the spread in games Jayden Daniels has started and finished, leads the NFL in turnover differential at plus-seven, and averages over 140 rushing yards in Daniels' starts. The Rams allowed 234 rushing yards to a mobile quarterback in Josh Allen during a Week 5 loss and are just 1-3 against the spread in their last four games in the Eastern Time Zone.
Another highlighted pick has the Chiefs (-9.5, total 48) covering against the Jets. Kansas City has covered both games as a favorite of more than a touchdown this season and is 4-1 against the spread in the last five such instances. The Jets are 2-4 against the spread as underdogs of more than a touchdown over their last six games. The Chiefs' fifth-ranked scoring defense faces New York's 25th-ranked scoring offense, with the Jets projected to gain just 3.8 yards per carry and Geno Smith expected to throw for under 200 yards. The model forecasts Kansas City to cover in over 50% of simulations, with the over hitting well over 50% of the time.
The model has also issued four A-rated spread picks across the full Week 9 schedule. A complete list of Week 9 NFL betting odds, lines, spreads, and totals for every matchup is provided, including Thursday's Jaguars at Ravens, the international Bengals-Falcons game in Madrid, and Monday night's Bills at Vikings.
