The NFL season reaches its unofficial midway point this weekend, and teams hoping to stay relevant for the final two months are seeing their margin for error shrink rapidly. No division is more competitive than the NFC North, where the last-place 5-3 Packers would qualify for the playoffs if they began today. The NFC North has a legitimate shot to become the first division in the current alignment to send four teams to the postseason, but none can afford many slip-ups outside the division.
Packers at Patriots
Green Bay (56% playoff chance) visits New England (63%) in a matchup of quarterbacks Jordan Love and Drake Maye. A Packers win raises their odds to 67%; a loss drops them to 46%. The Patriots' chances move from 73% with a win to 51% with a loss. Both teams face tough upcoming schedules, making this a pivotal swing game.
Rams at Commanders
The 4-4 Rams (28% chance) are favored against Washington (31%). A Los Angeles win lifts their odds to 39%; a loss plunges them to 18%. The Commanders' postseason hopes range from 42% with a win to 22% with a loss. The Rams, preseason Super Bowl favorites, have won two straight and cannot afford to drop below .500.
Buccaneers at Bears
Chicago (87% chance) hosts Tampa Bay (54%) on Sunday night. The Bears have won three straight and could move to 7-2 with a victory (92% chance). The Buccaneers, after an 0-4 start, have won three of four and lead the NFC South. A Buccaneers win raises their odds to 67%; a loss drops them to 48%.
Cardinals at Seahawks
Seattle (58% chance) faces Arizona (2%) in a game the Seahawks must win to avoid a devastating blow. A Seahawks win improves their odds to 63%; a loss cuts them to 38%. The Cardinals, coming off a Gardner Minshew-led comeback over Dallas, are playing spoiler.
Bengals at Falcons (in Spain)
The NFL's international series continues in Madrid. Cincinnati (89% chance) can keep pace in the AFC North, while Atlanta (21%) aims to stay in the NFC South hunt. A Bengals win pushes them to 93%; a loss drops them to 83%. The Falcons' odds range from 30% with a win to 15% with a loss.
