As the 2026 NFL season reaches its midway point, Week 9 features eight home underdogs and several road favorites on upset alert. Three matchups stand out as potential turning points for the second half of the season.
Packers at Patriots
Green Bay (+3) visits New England in a clash of teams that have both surged to 4-1 over the past five weeks after 1-2 starts. Jordan Love leads the league in passing yards, while Drake Maye tops total yards and touchdowns from Weeks 4-8. However, the Patriots' offense is banged up: A.J. Brown missed Week 8 with a knee injury and Hunter Henry left with a foot injury. Green Bay's defense has allowed just 14.6 points per game over the last five contests, ranking third in the NFL, and could capitalize on New England's limited receiving options.
Bills at Vikings
Buffalo, averaging a league-best 33.3 points per game, travels to Minnesota (+3.5) on Monday night. The Vikings' defense leads the NFL allowing only 13.3 points per game and blitzes at a league-high 69.1% rate. Josh Allen's passer rating against the blitz this season is 88.2 (20th among 31 qualified QBs) with three interceptions. Meanwhile, Minnesota's offense gets a favorable matchup against a Buffalo defense surrendering 25.9 points per game (tied for 24th). Home-field advantage at U.S. Bank Stadium adds to the Vikings' upset chances.
Texans at Chargers
Los Angeles (+4.5) hosts Houston still searching for its first win at 0-7. The Chargers rank last in scoring (14.1 PPG) and lead the league in turnovers (17), without a touchdown since Week 5's third quarter. Houston's defense has regressed sharply: after ranking 2nd in points allowed and 1st in yards allowed in 2025, they sit 18th and 19th respectively in 2026, having allowed 30+ points three times already. If the Texans' defensive struggles persist, the Chargers could finally break through at SoFi Stadium.
Other Notable Games
Denver visits Carolina (+2.5) where the Panthers are 8-9 as home underdogs under Dave Canales (6-4 since 2025). Carolina's offensive line has allowed 11 sacks over two games, but Denver may face a letdown after beating Kansas City. In Madrid, Cincinnati faces Atlanta (+3) at the Santiago Bernabéu. The Bengals' defense gave up 36 points to Tennessee and lost three defenders to injury, while the Falcons welcome back edge rusher James Pearce Jr. from suspension. Atlanta's ground game, led by Bijan Robinson, could exploit Cincinnati's 4.8 yards per rush allowed (tied for fourth-highest).
