A new column breaks down the top college football matchups for Week 10 with betting picks for six games, including two top-15 showdowns and a rivalry clash in Ann Arbor.
Miami at No. 11 Notre Dame
Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney is out with an ankle injury, lowering the Hurricanes' offensive ceiling. Miami's defense has allowed 93 points in its last three games against Florida State, Pittsburgh, and North Carolina, none of which rank higher than 47th in points per possession. Notre Dame's offense ranks third nationally in points per drive and fourth in success rate, scoring on 59% of possessions. The pick: Notre Dame Team Total Over 31.5 (-104).
No. 5 Alabama at No. 14 LSU
Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell has struggled against elite pass rushes, getting sacked nine times in losses to Georgia and Tennessee. LSU's defense ranks sixth in pressure rate and second in sack rate. Alabama's offense ranks 105th in pressure rate allowed. LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt has improved ball security recently. The pick: LSU -5.5 (-110).
Michigan State at Michigan (Lock of the Week)
Michigan's defense shut down Rutgers in the second half last week, and new starting quarterback Tommy Carr looked comfortable. Michigan State has lost six straight and is dealing with numerous defensive injuries. The pick: Michigan -13.5 (-106).
Cincinnati at No. 17 Houston (Fade of the Week)
Houston had a bye week after a loss to Utah, while Cincinnati was blown out 49-25 by Utah last week following an upset win over Texas Tech. The Bearcats face a third tough opponent in as many weeks on the road. The pick: Houston -10.5 (-112).
Texas State at Oregon State (Principle Play of the Week)
Both offenses rank in the top 15 nationally in scoring, but Oregon State's offense has slowed recently, and Texas State scores 1.67 fewer points per possession on the road. Rain and 35 mph wind gusts are forecast. The pick: Under 72.5 (-110).
No. 23 Oregon at No. 12 Ohio State (Upset of the Week)
Oregon's offense looked more cohesive after firing its offensive coordinator, and backup quarterback Dylan Raiola is more experienced than Ohio State's true freshman starter Luke Fahey. Oregon's defense has improved lately. The pick: Oregon (+245).
Betting Record
Last week: 2-4 overall. Season: Games of the Week 10-8 (+0.82 units), Lock of the Week 5-4 (+0.52), Upset of the Week 2-7 (-3.50), Overall 23-31 (-9.39).
