Major League Baseball faces an uncertain 2026-27 offseason as the current collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1, 2026, and a lockout is widely expected. The labor stoppage could threaten the 2027 season, while free agency, trades, and the draft lottery add further intrigue.
1. How long will the lockout last?
The CBA expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1, 2026, and owners are almost certain to lock out players. The 2021-22 lockout lasted 99 days, shortening spring training but preserving a 162-game season. If the lockout extends past mid-March 2027, regular-season games could be lost. The core dispute centers on owners pushing for a salary cap, which the MLBPA has historically rejected.
2. What will the next CBA look like?
Beyond the cap fight, the next CBA may restructure revenue sharing to distribute local broadcast revenues more evenly. Other potential changes include expanding the postseason to 14 teams, adding two expansion franchises, reducing the regular season to 154 games, implementing an international draft, and modifying the Competitive Balance Tax, draft rules, free agency, and arbitration.
3. Where -- and when -- will Tarik Skubal and other major free agents sign?
This free-agent class is considered weak overall, but two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, turning 30 in November, could command the largest pitcher contract in history, potentially approaching $400 million. The Dodgers, Mets, and Cubs are seen as favorites. Other notable free agents include Freddy Peralta, Michael King, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trevor Rogers, Adrian Morejon, and Teruaki Sato. The lockout timing may trigger a pre-lockout spending spree similar to November 2021, when teams committed over $1.7 billion before the stoppage.
4. Any blockbuster trades on the way?
A lackluster free-agent market may spur significant trades. Potential trade candidates include Francisco Lindor, Mason Miller, Spencer Strider, Hunter Greene, Otto Lopez, Jeremy Peña, Ketel Marte, and Jacob deGrom. However, CBA uncertainty could delay major deals until a new agreement is reached.
5. Who will get the No. 1 overall draft pick?
The draft lottery is scheduled for Dec. 8, 2026, involving 16 non-playoff teams. The Rockies, Angels, and Athletics each have a 19.1% chance at the top pick. The Giants and Pirates are excluded due to lottery restrictions. Early favorites for the No. 1 selection are University of Florida shortstop Brendan Lawson and Mississippi State left-hander Tomas Valinicius.
