Major League Baseball's collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1, and several factors suggest clubs may spend aggressively in the weeks leading up to a possible lockout.
November 2021 precedent
In November 2021, MLB teams committed more than $1.7 billion to free agents just before the last CBA expired and owners locked out players. The Texas Rangers alone spent over $560 million on Jon Gray, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien, who later helped the franchise win its first World Series title in 2023. Five players signed nine-figure contracts in the weeks before that lockout. With more than 140 players becoming free agents the day after the World Series, many will prefer to sign before a work stoppage to secure housing and family arrangements.
NPB players face hard deadline
MLB has declined to amend its posting agreement with Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league this offseason, according to The Athletic. Three NPB players — Hanshin Tigers third baseman Teruaki Sato, Seibu Lions right-hander Kaima Taira, and Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters right-hander Hiromi Itoh — were posted on Nov. 1. Their 45-day negotiating window would normally run through Dec. 16, but without an amendment they must sign by Dec. 1 or return to Japan for the 2027 season.
Tarik Skubal expected to sign early
Tarik Skubal, regarded as the best free agent on the market, is expected to sign before the lockout, per ESPN. Several big spenders — including the Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, and Mets — are pursuing Skubal. A domino effect could follow: teams that miss out on Skubal may quickly pivot to secondary targets such as Freddy Peralta and Trevor Rogers, accelerating the market for starting pitching.
New CBA rules likely phased in
Even if a salary cap is adopted in the next CBA, it is unlikely to be fully implemented in 2027. MLB has expressed willingness to phase in a cap over several years, giving high-payroll clubs like the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees time to adjust. Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro told Sportsnet last month: "You prepare under the current system, and then you adjust along the way. Any new system adopted, there will be a timeframe for adjustment into that system. I don't think any new system adopted would cause for immediate action." This suggests November may be the last chance for all teams to spend freely and have contracts grandfathered into the new economic system.
