Week 10 college football slate features seven matchups between teams in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, with several one-score lines across the SEC and a top-11 showdown between Miami and Notre Dame.
In the SEC, Alabama visits LSU as a 6-point underdog, Georgia travels to Ole Miss as a 3.5-point underdog, and Texas faces Missouri as a 2.5-point underdog. Meanwhile, No. 1 Miami visits No. 11 Notre Dame with the Fighting Irish favored by 7 points; the Hurricanes will be without injured star wide receiver Malachi Toney (ankle).
A proven computer model that simulates every FBS game 10,000 times entered Week 10 with an 80-77 record on top-rated picks. The model identifies Ohio State (-7.5, 45.5) as a strong cover candidate against Oregon at 3:30 p.m. ET. Despite a loss at USC, freshman quarterback Luke Fahey is expected to be more comfortable at home against a Ducks defense that has allowed more passing touchdowns than all but three Big Ten teams. Ohio State has covered 80% of home games since the start of 2025 and is projected to win by double digits, covering more than 60% of simulations.
Another highlighted pick is Oklahoma (+5.5, 45.5) covering at Florida in over 50% of simulations. The Gators have lost three of four games, each by 19-plus points. Quarterback Aaron Philo was benched after throwing two interceptions against Georgia, and his replacement Tramell Jones also committed two turnovers. Oklahoma, by contrast, has stability at quarterback with John Mateer averaging 296.5 total yards, four passing touchdowns, and zero turnovers over the last two games. Florida leads the SEC in penalty yards, and the model projects the over (45.5) to hit in 59% of simulations.
The model also projects three upsets in ranked matchups. Notable Week 10 games include BYU at Utah (-4.5), Oregon at Ohio State (-7.5), Kentucky at Tennessee (-6), Air Force at Army (-4), Michigan State at Michigan (-14), Georgia at Ole Miss (+3.5), and Oklahoma at Florida (-5.5).
