The NFL survivor pool saw another round of upsets in Week 8, with Dallas, Minnesota, Kansas City, and the New York Jets all losing. Those results eliminated many participants, though Survivor Revival pools offer a second chance. With two teams on bye, Week 9 features only 15 games.
Key matchups include the Cardinals vs. Seahawks, where the spread has shifted from -12.5 to -8.5 after Sam Darnold was ruled out with a quad injury and Gardner Minshew replaced Jacoby Brissett for Arizona. Other notable favorites are the Texans (-6) against the Chargers, who are on a 10-game losing streak, and the 49ers (-9.5) coming off a bye versus the Raiders.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each game 10,000 times and has returned over $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since 2024, entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run. The model is not confident in the 5-3 New England Patriots, who are 3-point favorites over the 5-3 Green Bay Packers at Gillette Stadium. Despite the Patriots' record, the model projects a one-point win, citing New England's recent one-score performances and injuries to receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness). Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love has thrown for 2,246 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions, targeting Christian Watson (42 receptions, 708 yards, six TDs) and Matthew Golden (43 catches, 619 yards, four TDs). Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has completed 67.1% of his passes for 1,983 yards and 15 touchdowns with eight interceptions.
Instead, the model is backing a team that has been underused in survivor pools, giving it a nearly 80% win probability in simulations. The specific pick is available only through SportsLine.
