Week 9 of the NFL season features a slate heavy on cross-conference matchups that could serve as potential Super Bowl previews. Notable games include the Bills visiting the Vikings as 3-point favorites, the Patriots hosting the Packers with New England favored by 3, and the Broncos traveling to Carolina as 2.5-point favorites. An international game in Madrid sees the Bengals favored by 3 points over the Falcons after Atlanta became the first team shut out this season in a 16-0 loss to Tampa Bay.
Key Matchups and Spreads
Several contests carry spreads of at least a touchdown. The Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites over the Jets, the 49ers are 9.5-point favorites against the Raiders, and the Seahawks are 8.5-point favorites versus the Cardinals. Quarterback changes add intrigue: Drew Lock replaces an injured Sam Darnold for the Seahawks, while Gardner Minshew takes over for Jacoby Brissett, who was traded to the Ravens.
Model Predictions
A computer model that simulates every NFL game 10,000 times has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated picks since its inception and entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run dating back to 2024. The model projects the Commanders (+4.5, total 47.5) to cover at home against the Rams well over 50% of the time. Washington is 3-1 against the spread in games Jayden Daniels has started and finished, leads the NFL in turnover differential at plus-seven, and averages over 140 rushing yards in those starts. The Rams allowed 234 rushing yards to the Bills in Week 5 and are 1-3 against the spread in their last four games in the Eastern Time Zone.
Another strong projection has the Chiefs (-9.5, total 48) covering against the Jets. Kansas City has covered both games as a double-digit favorite this season and is 4-1 against the spread in its last five such instances. The Jets are 2-4 against the spread in their last six games as double-digit underdogs. The model forecasts the Jets held to 3.8 yards per carry and Geno Smith under 200 passing yards, while Kansas City's fifth-ranked scoring defense should dominate.
Week 9 Schedule
The full Week 9 schedule with spreads and totals includes: Jaguars at Ravens (Thursday, final score Jaguars 33, Ravens 10); Bengals vs. Falcons in Madrid (CIN -3, 52.5); Browns at Saints (NO -3, 42.5); Cowboys at Colts (DAL -4.5, 51.5); Broncos at Panthers (DEN -2.5, 44.5); Lions at Dolphins (DET -6.5, 50); Rams at Commanders (LAR -4.5, 47.5); Giants at Eagles (NYG -3, 38.5); Jets at Chiefs (KC -9.5, 48); Texans at Chargers (HOU -6, 40.5); Cardinals at Seahawks (SEA -8.5, 39.5); Packers at Patriots (NE -3, 44.5); Raiders at 49ers (SF -9.5, 51.5); Buccaneers at Bears (CHI -6, 47.5); and Bills at Vikings on Monday (BUF -3, 44).
