College football Week 10 features seven matchups between teams in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, with several conference showdowns carrying one-score betting lines. The SEC highlights include Alabama at LSU (-6), Georgia at Ole Miss (+3.5), and Texas at Missouri (+2.5), while the top non-conference clash sees No. 1 Miami visiting No. 11 Notre Dame, where the Fighting Irish are 7-point favorites as Miami will be without injured wide receiver Malachi Toney.
Key Matchups and Lines
Other notable games on Saturday, Nov. 7 include BYU at Utah (-4.5), Oregon at Ohio State (-7.5), Kentucky at Tennessee (-6), Air Force at Army (-4), Michigan State at Michigan (-14), and Oklahoma at Florida (-5.5). The BYU-Utah rivalry, dating back over 100 years, has Utah favored by 4.5 points at home.
Model Predictions
A proven computer model that simulates every FBS game 10,000 times entered Week 10 with an 80-77 record on top-rated picks this season. The model projects Ohio State to cover the 7.5-point spread against Oregon, citing freshman quarterback Luke Fahey's comfort at home and an Oregon defense that has allowed more passing touchdowns than all but three Big Ten teams. The Buckeyes have covered 80% of home games since the start of 2025 and are projected to win by double digits.
In the SEC, the model favors Oklahoma to cover as a 5.5-point underdog at Florida, with the Gators having lost three of four games by 19-plus points and leading the conference in penalty yards. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has averaged 296.5 total yards with four passing touchdowns and zero turnovers over his last two games, providing stability. The model also projects the over on the 45.5-point total to hit in 59% of simulations.
The model identifies three upsets in ranked matchups according to the poll rankings. Full picks for every FBS game are available through the model's subscription service.
