Ohio State's 30-18 loss to USC on Saturday has dramatically narrowed the Buckeyes' margin for error in the College Football Playoff race. The defeat marks only the second time in the CFP era that Ohio State has lost a regular-season game, and it puts their streak of never finishing lower than No. 7 in the final rankings at risk. Freshman quarterback Luke Fahey struggled in his first road start, throwing interceptions and committing presnap penalties, while the offense managed just 18 points.
The Buckeyes now face a critical home game against Oregon, which impressed in a 34-26 win over No. 20 Northwestern behind quarterback Dylan Raiola's 336 yards and three touchdowns. Even if Ohio State beats Oregon, upcoming games against Northwestern, Nebraska, and Michigan could leave them at 9-3, raising questions about whether that resume would be enough over other 9-3 SEC teams.
USC's win boosted their playoff odds from 5% to 25% at DraftKings, but the Trojans face a tough road test at No. 4 Indiana after a bye, followed by a season finale against undefeated UCLA. Their earlier 24-7 loss to Wisconsin — which was shut out 30-0 by Iowa — casts doubt on their ability to run the table.
Wake Forest's Dominance Goes Unrewarded
No. 14 Wake Forest has won its last four games against Stanford, NC State, Cal, and Virginia by a combined 187-31, yet the Demon Deacons are unlikely to crack the top 12 in the next CFP rankings due to a weak schedule and lack of a signature win. Their best result remains a 33-20 loss to Miami in September.
Miami Shows Vulnerabilities
Top-ranked Miami survived a 38-35 scare against North Carolina, trailing in both the third and fourth quarters. The Tar Heels' Billy Edwards threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns, exposing a Hurricanes defense that also allowed four touchdown passes to Florida State's Ashton Daniels weeks earlier. Miami's playoff odds remain near 99%, but defensive issues could affect seeding ahead of a showdown with No. 5 Notre Dame.
Big 12 Picture Clarifies
Utah remains the only Big 12 team with better than 50% implied playoff odds (70.6%) after a 49-25 rout of Cincinnati. The Utes can secure a championship game berth with a win over BYU next week. Texas Tech rebounded from a loss to Cincinnati by beating Arizona 34-26 behind quarterback Thomas Castellanos, while Iowa State ended Oklahoma State's playoff hopes with a 51-49 thriller.
Boise State Survives Scare
No. 29 Boise State erased a 36-point second-half deficit to beat Texas State 46-45 after quarterback Maddux Madsen left with an injury. Backup Max Cutforth threw for 131 yards and three touchdowns in a quarter and a half to save the Broncos' Pac-12 title hopes. However, Madsen's injury status and upcoming games against Oregon State cloud their playoff prospects.
Teams Eliminated This Week
Playoff hopes ended for Auburn, Cincinnati, James Madison, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, UCF, and Wisconsin.
Next Week's Key Matchups
The biggest games impacting the playoff race: No. 1 Miami at No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 8 BYU at No. 6 Utah, No. 10 Alabama at No. 15 LSU, No. 3 Georgia at No. 12 Ole Miss, and Oregon at No. 2 Ohio State.
Projected Top 12 for Tuesday's Rankings
1. Miami, 2. Georgia, 3. Notre Dame, 4. Indiana, 5. Utah, 6. UCLA, 7. BYU, 8. Kentucky, 9. Alabama, 10. Texas, 11. Ohio State, 12. Ole Miss. Boise State projected as highest-ranked Group of 6 team.
