The Minnesota Vikings, the last unbeaten team in the NFL, enter Week 9 as 3-point home underdogs against the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. Meanwhile, the 6-1 San Francisco 49ers host the Las Vegas Raiders as 10-point favorites, and the Arizona Cardinals visit the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West rivalry game where the line has shifted after news that quarterback Sam Darnold will miss the game with a quad injury.
The Cardinals rallied from 14 points down to defeat the Dallas Cowboys 33-30 in overtime in Week 8, with Gardner Minshew set to start at quarterback following Jacoby Brissett's trade to Baltimore. Running back Tyler Allgeier leads Arizona's ground game with 72 carries for 323 yards and two touchdowns, including 147 yards and a score against Dallas. Tight end Trey McBride tops the team with 66 receptions for 544 yards and five touchdowns. For Seattle, Drew Lock replaces Darnold and will target wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has 64 catches for 985 yards and nine touchdowns; Lock previously guided the Seahawks to 31 points in a start this season.
A computer model that simulates every NFL game 10,000 times has identified five confident best bets for Week 9. The model has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception and entered the week on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. A successful parlay of the model's five selections would yield a payout of nearly +3000.
Among the highlighted picks, the model backs the Over 39.5 points in the Cardinals-Seahawks matchup, a side that hits in 76% of simulations. The Over has cashed in six of Arizona's last 10 games and three of Seattle's last five. Seattle's offense ranks 11th in scoring at 24.0 points per game, while Arizona averages 21.9 points per game, ranking 21st.
Other Week 9 matchups drawing model interest include the Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders (+4.5), Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears (-6) on Sunday Night Football. The Chargers have lost 10 consecutive games dating back to last season. The model also identifies four additional games where it believes the line is significantly off, including multiple spread picks that hit well over 50% of the time in simulations.
