The NFL survivor pool has thinned considerably after another rough week for favorites, with the 49ers, Jets, Panthers, and Texans among the casualties. The Texans entered as 10.5-point favorites over the Giants.
With four byes in Week 8, only 14 games are on the schedule. Survivor Revival pools offer a second chance for eliminated players. Popular matchups for those who haven't used those teams include the Bengals (-12.5) hosting the Titans and the Jaguars (-10) hosting the Colts. Other games with spreads over a touchdown: Patriots (-7) vs. Dolphins, Cowboys (-7) vs. Cardinals, Rams (-6.5) vs. Chargers.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has entered Week 8 on a 58-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024, up more than $5,000 for $100 players. The model has locked in its Week 8 survivor pool pick.
The model is not confident in the 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs, who are 1.5-point favorites against the 5-2 Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are coming off a 20-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Despite beating Denver 31-10 in the season opener on Sept. 14, the model gives the Chiefs a 47% win probability in Week 8. Patrick Mahomes has completed 64.9% of passes for 1,474 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions in six starts. Kenneth Walker III leads rushing with 701 yards and six touchdowns on 120 carries, but was held to 36 yards on 14 carries at Seattle.
The Broncos, defending AFC West champions, are on a three-game winning streak. Quarterback Bo Nix has completed 59.2% of passes for 1,271 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. The model gives Kansas City a 51% win probability, suggesting several other favorites are better plays.
Instead, the model is confidently backing a team many have not used in survivor pools, with a win probability over 70% in simulations.
