Five NFL teams enter Week 8 as favorites of -6 points or more: Jacksonville Jaguars (-10) vs. Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals (-12.5) vs. Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, and New England Patriots (-7) vs. Miami Dolphins. However, betting trends show such heavy favorites have covered only 27.5% of the time this season (8-21-3 ATS).
Key Trends and Model Projections
The Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos matchup has seen the under hit in each of the last seven meetings. This week Kansas City is favored by 1.5 points with a total of 40.5. SportsLine's advanced model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, projects 56 combined points in Jaguars vs. Colts, making the over 46.5 a 66% probability play in a five-team parlay paying around 25-1. The model also favors the Rams (-6.5, 45.5) to cover against the Chargers, cashing 55% of simulations.
DFS and Fantasy Rankings
For the main Sunday slate, the SportsLine DFS Optimizer highlights Cowboys running back Javonte Williams and Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins among top picks. In fantasy football, the model projects Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange as a top-8 option at his position for Week 8.
Expert Picks for Prime-Time Games
Larry Harstein (7-2 ATS over his last nine picks) backs the Detroit Lions (-3.5) to cover against the Minnesota Vikings, citing Brian Branch's defensive impact and Aaron Jones' knee injury. Emory Hunt (31-18-2 on Eagles picks) supports the Washington Commanders (-6.5) over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football, noting Philadelphia's offensive injuries including Jalen Hurts (blood clots) and DeVonta Smith (hamstring). R.J. White, SportsLine's top NFL expert, likes the Seattle Seahawks (-3) to cover the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football, pointing to Seattle's elite pass defense and Chicago's league-worst 6.3 yards per play allowed.
