The Denver Broncos sit at 7-2 after nine games, winners of five straight, yet they have been outgained by 699 yards — the worst yardage differential in NFL history for a team with at least seven wins at this stage. The previous low was the 2010 New England Patriots at minus-469 yards. Denver's swing from a plus-607 yardage differential at the same point last season to minus-699 this year represents a 1,306-yard decline, the largest year-over-year drop for any team starting 7-2 in consecutive seasons since 2000.
Despite the negative yardage, the Broncos have won an NFL-record 16 consecutive one-score games dating to last season. Six of their seven victories have come by eight points or fewer, and they have led for less than 10 minutes in wins over the Jaguars and Chiefs. Quarterback Bo Nix has engineered five fourth-quarter comebacks, tied for the most through nine games since 1950, according to CBS Sports Research.
The defense has forced 12 turnovers while committing only seven, though Denver has been outscored 41-39 on points off turnovers. Special teams have been a strength: the Broncos average 44.2 net yards per punt and have pinned opponents inside the 10-yard line nine times, placing them in the top 4% of the league through nine games.
Historically, only 18 of 125 teams that started 7-2 or better since 2000 were outgained over that stretch. Those 18 teams won 56.6% of their remaining regular-season games, compared to 68.6% for teams with positive yardage differentials. The 2010 Patriots (minus-469) finished 14-2, and the 2012 Baltimore Ravens (minus-325) won the Super Bowl. However, the 2022 Minnesota Vikings (minus-229) went 13-4 but lost their playoff opener.
Denver's offense has shown improvement over the past three weeks, with the passing game advancing in five straight games. The bye week arrives at a critical juncture, with upcoming games against the Raiders (twice), Dolphins, Jets, and Chargers. Speculation has grown about a potential trade for Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor to bolster the ground game and reduce reliance on late-game heroics.
Whether the Broncos' formula of winning close games without dominating yardage can sustain a deep playoff run remains the central question. History shows it is possible, but January will reveal if Denver's approach is a winning formula or a warning sign.
