The NFL survivor pool saw another round of upsets in Week 8, with Dallas, Minnesota, Kansas City, and the New York Jets all losing. Those results eliminated many participants, though Survivor Revival pools offer a second chance. With two teams on bye, Week 9 features only 15 games.
Point spreads have shifted notably. The Cardinals-Seahawks matchup opened at -12.5 for Seattle but dropped to -8.5 after Sam Darnold was ruled out with a quad injury and Gardner Minshew replaced Jacoby Brissett for Arizona. Many entrants have already used the Seahawks, prompting a look at other favorites such as the Texans (-6) against a Chargers team on a 10-game losing streak, or the 49ers (-9.5) coming off a bye versus the Raiders. San Francisco holds an 8-1 outright record in its last nine post-bye games.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, entered Week 9 of the 2026 season on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024 and has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites since its inception. The model has locked in its Week 9 survivor pick, which is available only through its platform.
In the Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET game at Gillette Stadium, the model expresses low confidence in the 5-3 New England Patriots, who are 3-point and -164 money-line favorites over the 5-3 Green Bay Packers. New England rallied from a 13-3 halftime deficit to beat Miami 24-19 in Week 8. Green Bay is 2-2 on the road, led by quarterback Jordan Love, who has completed 61.5% of his passes for 2,246 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Top targets Christian Watson (42 receptions, 708 yards, six touchdowns) and Matthew Golden (43 catches, 619 yards, four scores) pace the receiving corps. The Patriots, quarterbacked by Drake Maye (67.1% completion, 1,983 yards, 15 touchdowns, eight interceptions), will be without receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness). The model projects New England to win by just one point, suggesting better favorite options exist.
Instead, the model is confidently backing a team that many survivor pools have not yet used, giving it an outright win probability of nearly 80% in simulations. The identity of that team is being withheld pending the official release.
