Early average draft position data from initial 2027 fantasy baseball drafts reveals notable shifts in player valuations as the offseason unfolds. With only a small sample of best-ball leagues completed, the numbers offer a noisy but intriguing snapshot of current market sentiment.
Ohtani holds at No. 2 despite 2026 decline
Shohei Ohtani remains the second overall pick despite finishing as the No. 40 hitter in 2026 and turning 33 midseason. His dual-role injury risk and reduced stolen-base output weigh on his profile, yet his 2024 season (.300 average, 50-plus homers) and near-repeat in 2025 keep drafters betting on a bounce-back.
Judge slides toward end of first round
Aaron Judge, a consensus top-five pick for years, is falling near the back of the first round. At 35, he missed 106 games in 2026 and saw his strikeout rate jump from 24% to 30%. His expected wOBA on contact remains elite but the margin over peers like James Wood has narrowed dramatically.
Rookie Griffin commands second-round price
Konnor Griffin, who debuted at 19 and played 80 games, is going in the second round. A full-season pace projects a .272 average, 12 homers, 86 runs, 66 RBI, and 46 steals — comparable to Bobby Witt Jr.'s rookie output. A stronger second-half pace (.297, 16 homers, 50 steals) suggests higher upside if power develops.
Misiorowski establishes clear SP1 lead
Jacob Misiorowski sits at 9.12 ADP, well ahead of Tarik Skubal at 14.06, after a historic 2026 season. Cam Schlittler rounds out the top starter tier at 16.65.
Skenes still a top-10 starter despite velocity concerns
Paul Skenes ranks eighth among starters with a tight pick range (21st to 40th overall). Projection systems remain bullish on his career 2.62 ERA, though his velocity collapse late in 2026 introduces uncertainty.
Wheeler, Guerrero Jr., Raleigh, Betts, and Bregman all see value debates
Zack Wheeler sits at SP15 with age and injury risk tempering his strong 3.00 ERA. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains a top-75 pick despite volatility. Cal Raleigh holds around pick 90 in two-catcher leagues. Mookie Betts falls outside the top-12 shortstops as speed and average decline. Alex Bregman slips outside the top 100 despite a solid 2026 at Wrigley Field, presenting potential veteran value.
