Carson Beck, a third-round rookie, is set to make his NFL debut for the Arizona Cardinals against the Los Angeles Rams this Sunday after injuries to Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew. Brissett was benched and traded to Baltimore following a Week 8 loss, and Minshew suffered an elbow injury that could require season-ending surgery. Beck now has eight games to convince the Cardinals they do not need to use a likely top-10 pick on a quarterback in the 2026 draft.
Historical Context for Late-Starting Rookies
The Cardinals are 3-6 this season. A year ago, the New Orleans Saints were 1-7 but turned to rookie Tyler Shough, finished 5-4, and ended up with the eighth overall pick instead of a higher selection. Beck's college profile at Georgia and Miami showed a high floor: 43 starts, a 38.6% first-down rate (95th percentile among draft-eligible QBs from 2015-26), and pressure on just 19.1% of dropbacks (lowest in over a decade). Over 32% of his throws were screens, and he rarely faced chaotic situations.
Historical data since 2007 shows 24 quarterbacks drafted in the third round or later made their first start after Week 7 of their rookie year. Only eight started at least four games as rookies, and just three of those eight — Nick Foles, Desmond Ridder, and Brock Purdy — started at least eight games in their second season. Sam Howell was the only quarterback with fewer than four rookie starts to do so.
Mixed Long-Term Outcomes
Six of those eight quarterbacks improved their yards per attempt between their first two and final two rookie starts, but improvement did not guarantee long-term success. Ridder improved from 5.3 to 7.0 yards per attempt but was benched twice in 2023 and traded; the Falcons then drafted Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall in 2024. Purdy maintained 8.6 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and no interceptions and became one of the league's best.
Five of the eight teams did not draft a quarterback the following spring, but several selected one within the next two years. The Cardinals have their own history: they started rookies John Skelton in 2010 and Ryan Lindley in 2012, but neither was viewed as the long-term answer. Arizona passed on quarterbacks in the 2011 and 2013 drafts, instead trading for veterans Kevin Kolb and Carson Palmer.
Tyler Shough as a Blueprint
A more recent blueprint is Tyler Shough. The Saints selected him 40th overall in 2025, and he started nine games, going 5-4 while completing nearly 68% of his passes and showing he could run the offense. New Orleans passed on a quarterback in the 2026 draft and used the eighth pick on wide receiver Jordyn Tyson.
Offensive Fit and Challenge
Beck's task is to give offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur enough confidence to build around him. Arizona's offense attempts 58.8% of its passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage, and the offensive line has allowed pressure on 31.1% of dropbacks (fifth-lowest in the NFL). Beck's accuracy and anticipation should fit this scheme, but the Cardinals rank 28th in yards per play, and Brissett and Minshew did not consistently convert short throws into production.
Preseason projections had Beck averaging 6.9 yards per attempt with an 85.8 passer rating, an improvement over current play. The key will be whether he improves over the next two months, especially when defenses take away easy throws. He must push the ball downfield, sustain drives under pressure, and avoid costly mistakes.
High Stakes for Franchise
At Miami last season, Beck proved to be an efficient game manager, and his preseason debut suggested those skills could translate. Now he must do it against NFL starters week after week. With a potential top-10 pick in April and the franchise's last winning season in 2021, the stakes are high. Beck does not need to prove he is a franchise quarterback in eight games, but he must give the Cardinals reason to believe he could become one.
