The Week 9 NFL schedule features several cross-conference matchups that could serve as potential Super Bowl previews. Notable spreads include the Bills favored by 3 points over the Vikings, the Patriots by 3 over the Packers, and the Broncos by 2.5 over the Panthers. The Chargers, on a 10-game losing streak dating back to last season, are 5.5-point home underdogs against the Texans. Multiple games carry lines of at least a touchdown: Chiefs vs. Jets (+9.5), 49ers vs. Raiders (+9.5), and Seahawks vs. Cardinals (+8.5). Two NFC West teams will start new quarterbacks, with Drew Lock replacing the injured Sam Darnold and Gardner Minshew taking over for Jacoby Brissett.
An advanced computer model that simulates every NFL game 10,000 times has generated betting advice for the week. The model has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated picks since its inception and entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run on top-rated selections dating back to 2024.
One of the model's strongest picks is the Commanders (+4.5, total 47.5) covering at home against the Rams. Washington is 3-1 against the spread in games started and finished by Jayden Daniels, leads the NFL in turnover differential at plus-seven, and averages over 140 rushing yards in those starts. The Rams allowed 234 rushing yards to the Bills and Josh Allen in Week 5 and are just 1-3 against the spread in their last four games in the Eastern Time Zone. The model projects the game to be decided by less than a field goal, with the Commanders covering well over 50% of simulations.
Another highlighted selection is the Chiefs (-9.5, total 48) covering against the Jets. Kansas City has covered both games as favorites of more than a touchdown this season and is 4-1 against the spread in the last five such instances. The Jets are 2-4 against the spread in their last six games as underdogs of more than a touchdown. The Chiefs' fifth-ranked scoring defense faces the Jets' 25th-ranked scoring offense, with New York projected to average just 3.8 yards per carry and Geno Smith expected to throw for under 200 yards. Kansas City covers in over 50% of simulations, and the over hits well over 50% of the time.
The model has also identified four A-rated spread picks across the full Week 9 slate. The complete list of games with current spreads and totals includes: Jaguars at Ravens (Thursday, final score Jaguars 33, Ravens 10); Bengals vs. Falcons in Madrid (Cincinnati -3, total 52.5); Browns at Saints (New Orleans -3, total 42.5); Cowboys at Colts (Dallas -4.5, total 51.5); Broncos at Panthers (Denver -2.5, total 44.5); Lions at Dolphins (Detroit -6.5, total 50); Rams at Commanders (Los Angeles -4.5, total 47.5); Giants at Eagles (New York -3, total 38.5); Jets at Chiefs (Kansas City -9.5, total 48); Texans at Chargers (Houston -6, total 40.5); Cardinals at Seahawks (Seattle -8.5, total 39.5); Packers at Patriots (New England -3, total 44.5); Raiders at 49ers (San Francisco -9.5, total 51.5); Buccaneers at Bears (Chicago -6, total 47.5); and Bills at Vikings on Monday (Buffalo -3, total 44).
