The NFL survivor pool landscape shifted again in Week 8 as favorites Dallas, Minnesota, Kansas City, and the New York Jets all lost, eliminating many participants. Survivor Revival pools offer a second chance, but Week 9 features only 15 games due to two teams being on bye.
Early betting lines have moved significantly. The Cardinals-Seahawks matchup opened at Seattle -12.5 but dropped to -8.5 after Sam Darnold was ruled out with a quad injury and Gardner Minshew replaced Jacoby Brissett at quarterback for Arizona. With the Seahawks already used by many pool entrants, attention turns to other favorites such as the Texans (-6) against a Chargers team on a 10-game losing streak, and the 49ers (-9.5) coming off a bye to face the Raiders. San Francisco holds an 8-1 outright record in its last nine post-bye games.
An advanced projection model that simulates each NFL game 10,000 times has posted a 60-51 record on top-rated picks since 2024 and is up more than $5,000 for $100 players. For Week 9 of the 2026 season, the model expresses low confidence in the 5-3 New England Patriots, who are 3-point favorites over the 5-3 Green Bay Packers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. New England rallied from a 13-3 halftime deficit to beat Miami 24-19 in Week 8, while Green Bay is 2-2 on the road behind quarterback Jordan Love, who has thrown for 2,246 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has completed 67.1% of his passes for 1,983 yards and 15 touchdowns with eight interceptions. New England will be without receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness). The model projects New England to win by just one point, suggesting better options among other favorites.
Instead, the model strongly backs a team that has been overlooked in many survivor pools, giving it an outright win probability of nearly 80% in simulations. The identity of that team is available through the model's subscription service.
