Texas Tech hosts West Virginia on Saturday at 9:30 p.m. ET in a pivotal Big 12 matchup with conference championship implications. The Red Raiders enter at 4-1 in conference play and ranked No. 15 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, while the Mountaineers have won two consecutive games.
Texas Tech's offense found a spark last week with quarterback Thomas Castellanos making his first start and leading a 34-26 victory over Arizona. Castellanos will remain under center against a West Virginia defense that ranks second-worst nationally, allowing 483.9 yards per game.
West Virginia arrives with wins over Cincinnati and TCU, boasting the nation's 12th-ranked offense at 468.1 yards per game. However, their defensive struggles could be exploited by a Texas Tech team that is 85% likely to win according to Polymarket prediction markets.
Polymarket odds give Texas Tech an 85% win probability, with West Virginia at 16%. The Red Raiders are favored to cover a 17.5-point spread at 44% probability, while the over/under of 66.5 total points sits at 49% for the over. The SportsLine Projection Model projects a lower-scoring game, with simulations finishing under 66.5 points in 65% of runs.
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