The Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots, both 5-3 after victories last week, meet Sunday at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, for an NFL Week 9 matchup kicking off at 1 p.m. ET.
Quarterback Jordan Love threw three touchdown passes in Green Bay's Thursday night win over Carolina, while Patriots rookie Drake Maye also tossed three touchdowns in a 24-19 victory at Miami, continuing his strong play after a slow start.
DraftKings Sportsbook lists New England as a 3-point home favorite with an over/under of 46.5, though updated odds show the total at 44.5. The money line has Green Bay at +142 and New England at -170.
The Packers have won four of their last five games, with Love surpassing 270 passing yards in four of those contests. Against the Panthers he threw for 288 yards, while receivers Christian Watson (113 yards) and Matthew Golden (79 yards, one touchdown) combined for 15 receptions. Tight end Tucker Kraft added six catches for 63 yards and a score, and running back Josh Jacobs contributed 52 yards and two touchdowns. Green Bay's defense sacked Bryce Young six times and has not allowed more than 20 points in any of the past five games. Watson suffered a broken rib but returned to the game after a hospital visit.
New England is 3-0 at home this season and 9-3 at Gillette Stadium since the start of last season. Maye has averaged 279.6 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions over his last five games. The Patriots have five pass-catchers with at least 200 receiving yards, and running back Rhamondre Stevenson has totaled 579 yards and three touchdowns. The defense has recorded 22 sacks, led by Elijah Ponder with six. New England averages 23.0 points per game while allowing just over 20.
Green Bay is 2-2 on the road and 5-3 against the spread overall (2-2 ATS away). The Patriots are 3-4-1 ATS but 2-1 ATS at home. Six of the Packers' eight games have gone under the total, while five of the Patriots' eight have gone over. New England had won three of the previous four meetings before losing 27-24 in overtime at Lambeau Field in 2022.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, gives the Packers a 49% win probability as underdogs and projects them to cover the spread 53% of the time. NFL expert R.J. White also backs Green Bay +3, noting that the Patriots' offensive surge has come against weak defensive opponents.
