The Milwaukee Brewers will aim to clinch their first World Series title when they face the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 4 of the 2026 World Series on Tuesday night. Milwaukee holds a commanding 3-0 series lead after a 10-1 victory on Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.
Milwaukee will start right-hander Dustin May (0-0, 5.63 ERA), while Tampa Bay counters with right-hander Griffin Jax (0-1, 6.00 ERA).
Betting markets list the Brewers as -122 favorites on the money line (risk $122 to win $100), with the Rays at +110. The over/under for total runs is set at 7.
SportsLine's computer model, which simulates each MLB game 10,000 times and entered the World Series on a 32-25 run on top-rated money-line picks returning more than $1,000 for $100 players, projects the Over 7 combined runs at -120 odds. The Over has hit in four of the last five head-to-head meetings, is 5-1 in Milwaukee's last five games, and 4-2 in Tampa Bay's last six. In Tampa Bay home games with a line of 7.0 or lower, the Over is 8-5-2, and 20-14-3 in all Rays games at that line.
The model projects three Brewers players — Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and Jake Bauers — to record 1.5 or more total bases, and three Rays players — Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda — to do the same. It forecasts nine combined runs, making the Over the value side in 59% of simulations.
Additionally, the model indicates one side of the money line holds all the value; that selection is available through SportsLine.
