As the NFL enters Week 8, several favorites face potential upset scenarios according to analysis of matchups, injuries, and recent form. Five games feature favorites who could be vulnerable, with point spreads and statistical trends suggesting opportunities for underdogs.
Falcons at Buccaneers
The Atlanta Falcons enter as 2.5-point underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Baker Mayfield returned in Week 7 but attempted only 11 passes for 64 yards in a 43-13 win over Carolina. The Falcons allow the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (88.9) and rank fourth in pressure rate (41.4%). Tampa Bay has struggled at home this season with an 0-4 record. Mayfield's 2024 stats show -0.21 EPA per dropback (worst among 33 QBs), 6.3 yards per attempt (24th), and 83.0 passer rating (24th).
Raiders at Jets
Las Vegas travels to MetLife Stadium as 1.5-point underdogs against the New York Jets. The Raiders have lost four straight, allowing 35.8 points per game and 11 passing touchdowns during that span. However, they faced Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, Josh Allen, and Matthew Stafford during the skid. Geno Smith does not present the same caliber of challenge, and the Jets have the second-worst red-zone touchdown percentage in the NFL.
Vikings at Lions
Minnesota visits Detroit as 3-point underdogs in a matchup between the 6-0 Vikings and the high-powered Lions offense. Detroit averages 30.7 points and 397.3 yards per game (both second in NFL) with only three turnovers. Minnesota's defense leads the league in points allowed (12.3), red zone touchdown rate (23%), opponent completion percentage (54%), sack rate (10.6%), and pressure rate (47.6%). The Lions defense allows the most total yards (391.0) and passing yards (291.8) this season. Since 2015, teams 6-0 or better as underdogs are 4-1 straight up.
Ravens at Bills
Baltimore goes to Buffalo as 3-point underdogs with Lamar Jackson slated to return after missing three games with an ankle injury. Jackson completed 70.8% of passes with a 119.6 passer rating and 10.1 yards per attempt in his appearances this season. The Bills defense allows 386.8 yards per game (second-highest) and 28.5 points per game (third-highest), ranking 30th in points per drive (2.76), 27th on third down (45%), and 31st in penalties per game (3.7). Jackson is 10-5 as an underdog, the best record by a QB since 1970 (minimum 10 starts).
Browns at Steelers
Cleveland visits Pittsburgh as 3.5-point underdogs seeking their first season sweep of the Steelers since 1988 and looking to end a 22-game regular-season losing streak at Acrisure Stadium. All five Browns victories have featured game-winning scores in the final four minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. Deshaun Watson has completed 21-of-27 for 229 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions on those drives. Cleveland's defense allows 5.0 yards per play and 20.4 points per game. Pittsburgh played an international game in Paris, France in Week 7, potentially creating fatigue.
