An analysis of NFL Draft history since 2000 reveals that teams with multiple first-round selections have experienced vastly different outcomes, with some turning extra picks into championships while others remain mired in rebuilding cycles.
Recent Super Bowl winners with multiple first-round picks
The Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Seattle Seahawks each used two first-round picks in a single draft before winning Super Bowls. The Chiefs selected Trent McDuffie and George Karlaftis in 2022 and won back-to-back titles. The Eagles took Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith in 2023 and won the Super Bowl two seasons later. The Seahawks drafted Devon Witherspoon and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2023, both developing into stars before Seattle won the championship in February.
Contrasting failures: Jets and Giants
The New York Jets had three first-round picks in 2022 — Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, and Jermaine Johnson — producing two Rookie of the Year winners and a Pro Bowler, yet the team went 7-10, 7-10, 5-12, and 3-14 over the next four seasons with zero playoff appearances. By 2026, only Wilson remained on the roster. The New York Giants selected Kayvon Thibodeaux and Evan Neal with top-seven picks in 2022; while Thibodeaux showed promise, Neal struggled with injuries and was released before the 2026 season. The Giants made the playoffs once in four years.
Historical data shows limited advantage for struggling teams
Since 2000, 44 struggling teams (six or fewer wins) with multiple first-round picks improved by roughly three wins or more in at least one of the next three seasons 86% of the time. However, only 34% achieved two winning seasons and a playoff appearance in that span. Over five seasons, those teams won 44.9% of games, virtually identical to the 45.6% win rate for struggling teams with just one first-round pick. For already-winning teams, multiple first-round picks correlated with a 57% win rate over five seasons versus 52.1% for those with one pick.
Successful rebuilds: Lions and Texans
The Detroit Lions, coming off a 3-13-1 season, drafted Aidan Hutchinson and Jameson Williams in 2022, then Jahmyr Gibbs and Jack Campbell in 2023. Building around quarterback Jared Goff, Detroit reached the NFC Championship Game in 2023 and won 15 games the following season. The Houston Texans, also 3-13-1, selected C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. in 2023 and made the playoffs in each of the next three seasons, aided by hiring coach DeMeco Ryans.
Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks retooled without rebuilding
Kansas City traded Tyreek Hill for draft capital, then added McDuffie and Karlaftis while signing veteran receivers. Philadelphia and Seattle similarly added defensive talent to existing cores. Baltimore drafted Kyle Hamilton and Tyler Linderbaum in 2022, both becoming Pro Bowlers, and made the playoffs three of four seasons with Lamar Jackson at quarterback.
Titans bet on draft capital with Simmons trade
The Tennessee Titans, 1-6 in 2026, traded All-Pro Jeffery Simmons to Chicago for first-round picks in 2027 and 2028 plus a 2027 fourth-rounder. Tennessee already holds the No. 2 overall pick in 2027 after selecting quarterback Cam Ward first overall in 2025. Ward has struggled in his first 24 starts (4-20, ranking near the bottom among first-round quarterbacks in EPA per dropback), but historical data shows five of six similarly struggling quarterbacks improved over their next 22 games. The Titans aim to surround Ward with talent, potentially targeting Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith.
Browns and Jets get another chance
Cleveland made five first-round picks across 2017-18, reaching the playoffs in 2020 but failing to sustain success. After trading Myles Garrett, the Browns hold two first-round picks in 2027. The Jets, having moved on from Gardner and Johnson, also possess three first-round selections in 2027. Both franchises face the same challenge: converting draft capital into sustained winning before coaching and front-office turnover resets the process.
