Baylor Bears and Central Florida Knights meet in a key Big 12 Conference matchup Friday night at Acrisure Bounce House in Orlando, Florida. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Both teams enter with identical 4-3 overall records and 2-2 conference marks, tied with Cincinnati and Arizona State for seventh place in the Big 12. Baylor is coming off a 25-24 loss at Kansas, while UCF earned a controversial 39-31 overtime victory over BYU. The Bears are 1-1 on the road this season; the Knights are 4-0 at home in 2026. Baylor leads the all-time series 2-1, including a 30-3 win last year.
Odds and Predictions
Baylor is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5 points. Both teams are 5-2 against the spread this season. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each FBS game 10,000 times, projects the total to go Over 48.5 points. The Over has hit in two of the three all-time meetings and is 6-4 in UCF's last 10 games. UCF averages 32.7 points per game, Baylor 29.1 points per game.
The model forecasts Baylor quarterback D.J. Lagway to throw for more than 260 yards and two touchdowns, while UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins is expected to exceed 210 yards and two scores. The simulation projects 54 combined points, with the Over hitting 63% of the time in an A-rated pick. The model also indicates one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. SportsLine's model entered Week 9 on a 68-59 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $400 for $100 players.
