Top-ranked Miami Hurricanes (8-0) will face No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) on Saturday at Notre Dame Stadium in Notre Dame, Ind., with kickoff scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The matchup carries significant College Football Playoff implications.
Miami enters the game after a 38-35 victory at North Carolina in Week 9, while Notre Dame defeated Navy 35-13. The Hurricanes lead the ACC at 6-0 and are 4-0 on the road this season, remaining one of three unbeaten Power 4 teams. The Fighting Irish are 3-0 at home but 0-1 against ranked opponents.
Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney will miss the game due to an ankle injury, a factor that contributed to the point spread shifting during the week. Notre Dame opened as a 5.5-point favorite and is now favored by 7 points, with the over/under set at 54.5 points. The money line lists Notre Dame at -278 and Miami at +235.
Model Predictions
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each FBS game 10,000 times, projects the total points to go Under 54.5. The Under has hit in three of the last five head-to-head meetings and in Notre Dame's most recent game. Notre Dame's defense allows 13.4 points per game, tied for fifth nationally, while Miami allows 17.8 points per game, ranking 21st.
The model projects Miami quarterback Darian Mensah to throw for more than 260 yards and two touchdowns; he has accumulated 2,425 yards and 25 touchdowns with one interception this season. Notre Dame quarterback C.J. Carr is projected to throw for nearly 250 yards and two touchdowns, with 1,849 yards and 18 touchdowns against one interception on the year. The computer forecasts a combined 51 points, with the Under representing the value side 58% of the time.
Additionally, the model identifies one side of the spread as the better value, though that specific pick is available only through SportsLine. The model entered Week 10 on an 80-77 run on top-rated college football picks.
