The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race is set for Sunday at 3 p.m. ET at Homestead-Miami Speedway, with the title to be decided among three drivers.
Kyle Larson enters as the points leader with a 67-point advantage over Christopher Bell and a 70-point margin over Denny Hamlin. Larson has three playoff wins this season, while Chase Briscoe has two, and Tyler Reddick, Bell, and Joey Logano each have one. William Byron won last week at Martinsville.
Briscoe will start from the pole after posting a qualifying time of 32.396 seconds, securing his second pole of the season.
Championship Odds and Model Predictions
The latest odds from FanDuel list Larson as the +410 favorite, followed by Hamlin (+600), Bell (+650), Ryan Blaney (+700), and Reddick (+750). Briscoe is at +850, Byron at +1100, and Ty Gibbs at +1700.
Mike McClure, a professional DFS player with over $2 million in career winnings, has run 10,000 simulations through his prediction model. The model suggests fading Larson despite his points lead, noting his recent struggles at comparable tracks and the possibility he may race conservatively. McClure's model is high on Gibbs at +1700, citing his third-place finish last week and Joe Gibbs Racing's record nine victories at Homestead. The model also identifies two longshots at +2000 or longer as potential contenders.
McClure's model has correctly predicted 34 winners since 2021, including three playoff race winners in 2025.
