With chaos across college football this season, at least one three-loss team is projected to reach the 12-team College Football Playoff. Ohio State, Oregon, LSU, and Ole Miss each entered the year with playoff expectations and now sit at three losses with three games remaining. CBS Sports projections give all four at least a 10% chance, though their margin for error is gone.
The Contenders
Ohio State (36.7% CFP chance) faces Northwestern, at Nebraska, and Michigan. The loss of quarterback Julian Sayin clouds the offense, and the defense faltered against Oregon. A road game at Nebraska looms as the toughest test.
Oregon (25.8% CFP chance) hosts Michigan, visits Michigan State, and hosts Washington. The Ducks have regained swagger after beating Ohio State, with new play caller Jay Johnson and quarterback Dylan Raiola showing promise. The schedule appears manageable beyond Michigan.
LSU (20.6% CFP chance) hosts Texas, visits Tennessee, and visits Arkansas. The Tigers boast the most talented three-loss roster but have lost their two biggest games via critical mistakes. Winning both top-10 matchups would likely secure a playoff berth.
Ole Miss (10.3% CFP chance) plays at Oklahoma, hosts Wofford, and hosts Mississippi State. Even a 3-0 finish may not suffice without resume-building wins; the Rebels need chaos elsewhere to climb into the field.
Louisville (2.9%), South Carolina (2.5%), and Missouri (0.4%) have minimal chances, largely dependent on conference championship scenarios or massive upsets.
The Verdict
Every contender is loaded with talent, but Oregon's combination of talent and a favorable remaining schedule gives it the best shot. If the Ducks win out, they will own road wins over USC and Ohio State with only two-point losses to UCLA and Oklahoma State, and could even play for the Big Ten Championship.
