The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) aim for their fifth win in six games when they face the Baltimore Ravens (4-4) on Thursday Night Football at M&T Bank Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET.
Baltimore will be without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson (thumb) and backup Tyler Huntley (toe), leaving rookie third-stringer Joe Fagnano to make his first NFL start. Jacksonville running back Bhayshul Tuten is active after being listed as questionable with foot and ankle injuries.
The Jaguars are 9.5-point road favorites, the largest road spread of the 2026 NFL season. The over/under has dropped from 48.5 to 39.5 points due to the Ravens' quarterback situation.
SportsLine's simulation model, which has returned over $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since inception, projects the game to go over 39.5 points. The model cites the over hitting in three of the last four head-to-head meetings, in each of Jacksonville's last two games, and in six of Baltimore's last 10 games.
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has completed 65.7% of his passes for 1,690 yards and 17 touchdowns with four interceptions in seven starts. Running back Bhayshul Tuten leads Jacksonville's ground game with 492 yards and three touchdowns on 110 carries. For Baltimore, Derrick Henry has rushed for 632 yards and eight touchdowns on 158 carries in eight games.
The model projects 47 combined points and gives the over a 64% hit rate. It also identifies one side of the spread as better value, with details available on SportsLine.
