The Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings, both 6-1 and leading their respective divisions, meet on Monday Night Football at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET.
The Bills are 3.5-point favorites with an over/under of 45.5 points. Buffalo comes off a 36-10 win over Baltimore on Nov. 1, while Minnesota suffered its first loss, 19-15 at Detroit the same day. The Bills are 3-0 on the road in 2026; the Vikings are 3-0 at home.
Injury report: Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray (hamstring) and receiver Jauan Jennings are out, while Bills receiver Joshua Palmer (hamstring) is out and headed to injured reserve.
SportsLine's simulation model, which has returned over $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since inception and entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run since 2024, projects the Over 45.5 points as the slight value side. The Over has hit in three of Buffalo's last four games and in three of the last four matchups in Minnesota. The model also indicates one side of the spread hits in more than 50% of simulations.
Additional projections: Carson Wentz's insertion at quarterback is expected to boost Minnesota's offense, with three Vikings projected to top 60 scrimmage yards, while Josh Allen and James Cook are projected to combine for nearly 125 rushing yards.
