The Minnesota Vikings (6-1) host the Buffalo Bills (6-1) on Monday Night Football at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. The matchup pits the NFL's top-scoring offense against its top-scoring defense to cap Week 9 action.
Minnesota suffered its first loss of the season last week, falling 19-15 to the Detroit Lions. Buffalo enters on a high note after a 36-10 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. The Vikings will start Carson Wentz at quarterback with Kyler Murray inactive due to a hamstring injury.
Buffalo opens as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 44.5 points. Josh Allen is listed at -120 to score an anytime touchdown. The Bills lead the league in scoring offense, converting scoring drives on 56.6% of possessions, while ranking in the top six in third-down conversion rate (44.4%), fourth-down conversion rate (77.8%), and red-zone touchdown rate (70%).
Minnesota's defense, coordinated by Brian Flores, ranks No. 1 in scoring defense, No. 2 in total defense, and No. 1 in pass defense. The Vikings blitz at a league-high 69% rate, nearly double any other team. Allen has been highly effective against the blitz this season, ranking second in EPA per dropback when pressured.
Expert Picks and Best Bets
SportsLine NFL expert David Bearman favors the Bills -3, noting Buffalo's defense is stronger than the Lions unit that contained Minnesota last week. Bearman expects similar results to Detroit's win over the Vikings.
For player props, SportsLine's Prop Bet Guy Doug recommends Khalil Shakir Over 3.5 receptions at -130. The slot receiver has been targeted on 15 of 51 routes when Allen faces blitz pressure, catching 11 of those passes. With Minnesota's heavy blitz tendency and two-high safety scheme, Shakir's route tree projects favorably.
